Fanran Meng, Luke Cullen, Rick Lupton, Jonathan M. Cullen, May 16, 2024

The petrochemical industry is responsible for 13% of global industrial and 3.5% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions^1,2. However, a detailed account of facility-level emissions does not exist, clouding decision making for decarbonisation in the sector. To address this gap, we map historical, present, and anticipated emissions from 37,379 production facilities, assessing trends across country, product-type, emissions source, GHG-type, uncertainty and time. We develop a bottom-up emissions assessment covering 81 chemicals and 2,043 manufacturing processes, using production volumes, process recipes, thermodynamic principles, and fully quantified uncertainties. We show that global GHG emissions from petrochemical production are 2.0±0.8 GtCO_2e in 2023, rising to 3.0±1.2 GtCO_2e in 2050. Decarbonisation is challenging due to fossil feedstock use, releases from process reactions, long infrastructure lifespans, and high-temperature heat requirements; analyses and action are hindered by inadequate granularity for emissions accounts^1,3–5. Our scenarios suggest that efficiency improvements, alternative feedstocks and carbon capture technologies must be implemented quickly, prioritising the highest-emitting facilities. Demand reduction and power grid decarbonisation, especially in China, the US, and India, are needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Our comprehensive analysis provides insights for industry, academics, and policymakers, for targeting effective decarbonisation in the petrochemical sector.

Yunhu Gao & André Cabrera Serrenho, May 16, 2024

The widespread use of polymers leads to several environmental challenges, particularly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ecosystem contamination. Yet, the global mitigation potential of possible interventions has not yet been quantified. This would require a high-resolution model to anticipate the future demand for polymers, and the potential impacts of demand reduction and recycling. Here, we present such a model to estimate the production, trade, consumption, and the accumulation in service of 14 polymers across eight world regions. Current trends could lead to doubling the annual global demand and waste generation of polymers by 2100. But any further increases could be avoided by either limiting the stock of polymers in service globally or by maximising the deployment of mechanical and chemical recycling technologies.

Banafsheh Jabarivelisdeh, Enze Jin, Phillip Christopher, and Eric Masanet, May 16, 2024

Ammonia production is responsible for around 35% of the CO2 emissions associated with the global chemical sector. In this study, a bottom-up model with high technical and economic resolution is implemented to assess potential least-cost pathways to achieve a net-zero U.S. ammonia industry by 2050.

Dominika Malkowska & Rick Lupton et al. May 16, 2024

In this study the consistency and completeness of two publicly-available datasets (PRODCOM and UNFCCC) is analysed against a proprietary industry database of petrochemical facilities (ICIS Supply and Demand), comparing production quantities and estimated emissions. This provides an innovative global assessment of the potential impact of inconsistencies and data gaps on our ability to model and monitor the operation and emissions of the global petrochemical industry.

Ella T. Jennings, Penny J Hamlin, Chris Hamlin and Jonathan M. Cullen, May 16, 2024

The petrochemicals sector is known to be “hard-to-decarbonise” due to its innate requirement for oil, high greenhouse gas emissions, and highly interconnected and complex supply chains. The sector’s complexity makes it difficult to decipher how, when, and where to intervene. Every country has a different level of embroilment in the petrochemical sector, further complicating the solution space, with no one-fits-all policy recommendations. There have been no previous attempts in literature to perform a categorization on the petrochemical industry. This research fills this gap by examining the structure of the petrochemical sector to categorize countries into groups which will respond similarly to different decarbonisation solutions.

Fanran Meng & Jonathan M. Cullen, May 16, 2024

This study re-evaluates recycling, landfill, and incineration for commodity polymers (PET, PE, PVC, PP, PS, PUR, and ABS). This involves the compilation of a repository of life cycle inventory data, a review of the academic and grey literature, and some original modelling, which are synthesised to create a decision-making framework. Policy options for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of the different EOL options are discussed.

Stephen S. Doliente, Rick Lupton et al., May 16, 2024

Eliminating carbon emissions from the petrochemical sector will involve changes to a complex system of feedstocks, processes, energy, materials, products, and waste management.  This complexity and the scale of change required mean it is challenging to include both breadth of supply-side and demand-side changes, and the depth needed to make sure solutions are technically plausible.  Inspired by the UK MacKay energy system calculators, we develop an interactive petrochemical systems calculator model which shows how a future global petrochemical sector could respond to different levels of ambition for a wide range of emissions-reduction supply-side and demand-side levers.

Rick Lupton, May 16, 2024

Models of material flows and processes used for Life Cycle Assessment and Material Flow Analysis are most commonly linear in nature, deploying fixed process in different proportions to meet demand according to a system of linear matrix equations.  However, this approach cannot handle more complicated situations, such as when processes have limited capacity and should be dispatched in order of preference until capacity is exhausted.  The solutions can also be hard to explain, since the resulting process operations are the result of the numerical solution to a large matrix inversion.  We therefore propose a new modelling approach based on defining the logical steps through which flows are determined.  The result is an efficient and explainable model which in simple cases is simple to define, but has the flexibility to embed more complex logic.

Carey King, May 16, 2024

This paper summarizes the effort to calibrate the HARMONEY model framework to the United States economy divided into seventeen productive sectors plus the household and government sectors. To do this, we have allocated approximately 100 gigatonnes of mass stock in the U.S. economy among fifteen categories of capital, such as roads, buildings, and power plants.

Luke Cullen et al., March 26, 2024

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions estimates for petrochemical production have lacked quantification globally, impacting emissions reporting and decarbonization policymaking. Here we analyze cradle-to-gate emissions of 81 chemicals at 37,000 facilities worldwide, assessing 6 uncertainty sources.

Jonathan Cullen, Fanran Meng and Miguel Brandão , January 30, 2024

Replacing plastics leads to higher full life-cycle emissions using alternative materials in most current applications.

Jonathan Cullen, Fanran Meng et al, December 12 2023

Here we predict the quantity and composition of wind turbine blade waste based on historic deployment, compiling a high-resolution database containing 14 turbine capacities (150–5500 kilowatts) based on 104 turbine models.

Lulu Song, Stijn van Ewijk, Eric Masanet, Takuma Watari, Fanran Meng, Jonathan M. Cullen, Zhi Cao & Wei-Qiang Chen, September 11, 2023

Here we show that, by 2060, China could source most of its required bulk materials through recycling, partially attributable to a declining population.

Zhichao Chen, Yosuke Kimura, and David T. Allen, April 3, 2023

For chemical recycling of plastic wastes to be viable, chemical products generated in recycling need to find markets. A network model of the U.S. chemical manufacturing industry was used to assess at what cost points, and the extent to which, chemical products from thermal pyrolysis of polyethylene might find markets in the current U.S. chemical manufacturing industry.

Michał Drewniok, Yunhu Gao, André Cabrera Serrenho and Jonathan Cullen, March 9, 2023

New study of UK plastics flows from shows that 1/3 of related GHG emissions could be reduced by increasing recycling capacity and halving per capita demand for packaging.

Fanran Meng, Eric Masanet, André Cabrera Serrenho, Jonathan Cullen, February 14, 2023

New paper presents seven planet-compatible pathways the chemical industry could follow to reach net zero by 2050. Through a combination of demand-side and supply-side strategies, it is possible to transform the industry so that it is a force for environmental good rather than a planetary-boundary-breaking threat.

Yunhu Gao and André Cabrera Serrenho, February 9, 2023

New study shows that emissions from global fertilisers could be cut by 84% by implementing a combination of policy solutions and technological measures. 2/3 of emissions from fertilisers are released during the use phase, meaning that both demand-side and supply-side interventions will be required to mitigate emissions.

Banafsheh Jabarivelisdeh, Enze Jin, Phillip Christopher, and Eric Masanet, January 25, 2023

New study assesses the emissions reductions of actions to improve the efficiency of existing ammonia production processes. Our model reveals the emissions-saving potential of short-term interventions to retrofit existing production facilities for greater efficiency.

Zhichao Chen, Yosuke Kimura , and David T. Allen, November 11 2022

A network model of U.S. chemical manufacturing was used to assess network impacts and cost points for using recycled polyethylene.

Banafsheh Jabarivelisdeh, December 13, 2022

Ammonia is a key chemical produced at large volumes to meet vast global demands for products such as fertilisers. It plays a key role in the global economy, but this is not without cost to the planet. Ammonia production also requires large amounts of energy and releases significant quantities of greenhouse gases. This brief includes technical descriptions of the main ammonia production technologies to build understanding of the current production pathways, the associated energy usage, their process emissions statuses, and the potentials for sustainable ammonia production.

Jonathan Cullen, May 11, 2022

The plastic industry is dependent on fossil fuels in various ways that result in strong “carbon lock-ins” throughout the value chain and large and growing CO₂ emissions. The industry must decarbonize to reach global net-zero pledges.