Coming Soon | Evaluating the potential to reduce the global demand for virgin polymers

Yunhu Gao & André Cabrera Serrenho

This article is under review.

The widespread use of polymers leads to several environmental challenges, particularly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ecosystem contamination. Yet, the global mitigation potential of possible interventions has not yet been quantified. This would require a high-resolution model to anticipate the future demand for polymers, and the potential impacts of demand reduction and recycling. Here, we present such a model to estimate the production, trade, consumption, and the accumulation in service of 14 polymers across eight world regions. Current trends could lead to doubling the annual global demand and waste generation of polymers by 2100. But any further increases could be avoided by either limiting the stock of polymers in service globally or by maximising the deployment of mechanical and chemical recycling technologies.

Image: Tanvi Sharma on Unsplash